Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
