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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the award. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

However this year's competition is profoundly different. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and longtime also-rans improving collectively. Under an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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